AFCON 2025 Predictions: Experts Pick the Winner

In Summary:

• Morocco are statistical favorites for AFCON 2025, driven by home advantage, strong squad depth, and positive predictive models.
• Egypt and Senegal closely follow, combining historical success, star players, and balanced teams in expert forecasts.
• Sports predictions rely on probability models, expert analysis, and data simulations, not certainty, making AFCON inherently unpredictable.

Deep Dive!!

Tuesday, 23 December 2025 – As the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations unfolds in Morocco, football fans from across the continent and beyond are gripped by speculation over who will lift Africa’s most coveted trophy. With 24 nations competing and several boasting rich histories and star-studded squads, predictions have poured in from analysts, simulation models, and betting markets alike. Here is a comprehensive look at the most credible forecasts and expert insights on who might emerge as champions.

Morocco: The Home Favourite

Second only to football pundits’ intuition, predictive models have placed Morocco as the team most likely to win the 2025 AFCON. According to the Opta supercomputer simulations, the hosts lead the field with roughly 19.1 percent probability of lifting the trophy. Hosting the tournament for the first time since 1988 gives them a distinct edge. Morocco also enter at the top of the FIFA world rankings among African nations, and their impressive form, including an 18-match winning streak heading into the competition, boosts confidence in their title chances. Key players such as Achraf Hakimi, Brahim Diaz, Youssef En-Nesyri and goalkeeper Yassine Bounou provide the squad with a blend of experience and quality that analysts say could carry them all the way.

Playing at home in front of passionate supporters is widely seen as a decisive factor; teams that enjoy familiar surroundings often outperform expectations. Morocco’s defensive discipline and attacking balance give them a tangible advantage over other contenders.

Egypt: History and Salah’s Star Power

Nothing captures attention quite like a legendary player chasing continental glory. Egypt, seven-time winners of the AFCON, remain firmly in the prediction conversation with around a 12.4 percent chance of winning according to the supercomputer’s projections. Although they have not lifted the trophy since 2010, Egypt’s blend of veteran experience and attacking talent keeps them among the favourites. Mohamed Salah, arguably Africa’s most famous footballer, plays a central role in these expectations.

Experts note that Egypt’s potential success hinges on Salah’s fitness and form, as well as the support of teammates like Omar Marmoush. Their journey through a competitive Group B and possible knockout ties will test how effectively this squad can translate individual brilliance into sustained performance.

Senegal: Balanced Contenders Under Renewed Leadership

Senegal, the 2021 champions, are another serious contender. They sit just behind Egypt in many predictions, with about 12.3 percent odds of winning according to simulation models. Under new management and featuring a roster of players plying their trade in Europe’s top leagues, including Sadio Mané and Édouard Mendy, the Teranga Lions bring both experience and tactical balance to the tournament. Analysts suggest that Senegal’s blend of physicality and skill could see them make a deep run if they can navigate a challenging group stage and avoid early slip-ups.

Algeria and Nigeria: Strong Squads With Challenges

Just behind Senegal and Egypt in most predictive models are Algeria and Nigeria. Algeria’s chances hover around a similar percentage to Egypt’s, bolstered by seasoned campaigners such as Riyad Mahrez and emerging talents across the pitch. They are predicted to be a threat, though perhaps lacking the consistency expected of the very top favourites.

Nigeria’s Super Eagles, historically one of Africa’s powerhouse teams, are given a lower probability of victory in supercomputer forecasts than some might expect, with around 7.3 percent chance. Despite featuring talismanic striker Victor Osimhen and other dynamic attackers like Ademola Lookman, Nigeria’s defensive concerns and tournament draw could limit their title tilt.

Dark Horses and Underdogs

Beyond the top five contenders, a handful of nations are pegged as dark horses. Tunisia, Ivory Coast, Mali, Cameroon, South Africa and DR Congo all have non-zero chances in predictive simulations, though their odds are comparatively modest. These teams may not be favourites on paper, but historical upsets in AFCON suggest nothing is ever guaranteed. Mali and Ivory Coast, for example, could surprise if they hit form at the right moment.

Alternate Predictions and Betting Perspectives

Not all forecasts align perfectly. Some betting markets and analytics models offer different views, occasionally placing greater faith in Egypt or even Senegal over Morocco. For example some punters and bookies forecast Egypt to win due to the strong attack and rich AFCON history. Others see Senegal’s squad depth as a major asset. Personal predictions from coaches and commentators emphasise AFCON’s inherent unpredictability, underlining that form, injuries, group dynamics and knockout bracket luck all influence final outcomes.

A Tournament Wide Open and Full of Drama

The AFCON 2025 title race is shaping up to be one of the most exciting in recent memory. Morocco are the statistical favourites, Egypt and Senegal follow closely, and other giants like Algeria and Nigeria loom large in expert predictions. Underdogs could still make noise, adding to the drama that defines African football. As the tournament progresses, these projections will be tested on the pitch, making every match essential viewing for fans and analysts alike.

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